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# The California Wine Business May Hit Bottom in by Mid 2027, Begin Recovering by 2029
- URL: https://bevnews.net/the-california-wine-business-may-hit-bottom-in-by-mid-2027-begin-recovering-by-2029/
- Published: 2026-09-03T05:05:17.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-03T05:05:17.000Z
- Author: Joel Whitaker
- Tags: Economy

If you've got the cash, and you want to acquire a California vineyard, now is the time to get ready to buy, says Jenny Heintzen, of Vineyard International Real Estate. 

Ecoing 18th Century financieer Nathan Rothschild's famous maxim that "when there's blood in the streets, buy then – even if the blood is your own," she acknowledges that "California's wine industry is moving through one of its most significant corrections in decades." But, she says, for "prepared buyers," this shifting landscape may create a rare windown to buy California vineyard property on favorable terms."

She estimates the "California wine business could reach its economic bottom between late 2026 and mid-2027\. Real estate transactions "may begin improving during 2028, followed by a more meaningful recovery in select property values beginning in 2029."

But everything hinges on this year's California winegrape crop, Heintzen says. California crushed about 2.63 million tons of wine grapes in 2025, the smallest wine grape crop since 1999 and about 23% below the five-year average. "That reduction was painful for growers," she says, "but it also helped reduce the supply imbalance that has weighed on grape prices, bulk wine inventories, and vineyard economics."

A substantially larger crop, particularly if wine shipments and consumer demand remain soft, could add inventory back into the system and extend the correction, Heintzen says.. It could mean more unsold fruit, additional pressure on grape prices, further vineyard removals, and a longer road to recovery.

A prepared buyer – one who has developed an acquisition strategy, built relationships, studied opportunities, and is ready to act when the right property becomes available – will have over the next 12 to 18 months a number of opportunities, some of them rare, she says.: