A bevy of financial notes today:

On barchart.com, Neha Panjwani asks "is Brown-Forman stock underperforming the Dow?"

Panjwani notes B-F is down 45.2% from its 52-week high of $49.89, which the stock achieved on October 18, 2024. Over the past three months, BF.B stock (the class most widely held by the public) gained 5.4%, underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average's 7.6% gains during the same period.

The stock is down 28.1% year-to-date, and down 41.4% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming the gains of 7.6% and 9.9%, respectively. And for those who track technical indicators, BF.B has been trading below its 50-day moving average sicne late October 2024, and below its 200-day moving average over the past year, with minor fluctuations.

Diageo, Panjwani says, is doing better, although its 21.9% drop year-to-date and 24.7% losses over the past 52 weeks are nothing to write home about . . . my opinion.

Looking forward, the 18 analysts covering Brown-Forman project a price target of $32.08, a 17.4% gain from current price levels. Speaking of current price levels, yesterday, BF.B was up 0.4%, the Dow was up 0.57% (remember, of the 30 stocks in the Dow, five a tech stocks) – and Diageo was down 1.02%.

CBrands Down About 37% This Year

Constellation Brands stock is down about 37% this year. It's got a host of problems, some typical of all bev/al brands, but some unique to itself: It has supply chain constraints in Mexico, a result of the governemnt cancelling its planned Mexicali brewery in 2020. It boosted prices to counter inflation, but that curbed sales to lower income consumers.

About half its beer sales are to Mexican immigrants, and the Trump Administration is aggressively rounding those up and trying to deport them. Those the administration can't deport are, in many cases, afraid to show their faces on the streets – including holders of green cards. The result: It expects beer sales to decline 4% to 6% in fiscal 2026, and its wine and spirits sales are down in FY 2025 7% for wine and 11% for spirits.

It now expects comparable earnings per share to fall 16% to 18%.

The Big Question: An Upturn Anytime Soon?

In a word, no. Between tariffs on aluminum, a key packaging ingredient; imports key products for many retailers, which means key products for U.S. suppliers and wholesalers, too, and the "just one sip of alcohol is bad for you" line being promosted by the World Health Organization, there's little reason to expect a quick turnaround.

On the other hand . . . in our opinion . . . barring a general market collapse, this may be about as bad as it gets.