Bud Light and the Trans Influencer

We've steered clear of the controversy involving Bud Light's use of a transgender person as an influencer because frankly we think it's right there with Donald Trump's claim that the 2020 election was stolen and that a voting machine company somehow rigged the machines to prevent his election.  

But let's take a moment to examine this tale.  Or rather, the media whipping this tale.  A scan of Google News found YouTube with a clip of "Outnumbered" a Fox News program discussing "Anheuser-Busch Loses Billions Since Mulvaney Deal."

We don't know when Bud Light's use of Mulvaney became public, but in the last month, ABI's stock price has risen from $60.71 a share on March 14 to $64.34 April 13.  In the last six months, ABI's stock price has risen from $45.57 on October 14, 2022, to $64.34 March 14. Going back a year, to April 14, 2022, ABI's stock closed at $58.72, on April 13, 2023, it closed at $64.34.  Frankly, on the basis of the stock price, ABI shareholders should want the marketing team to use more transgender people as influencers.  

But still there's that stunning number of $3 billion, or $4 billion, or $5 billion.  It's meaningless.  Here's why: Assuming Anheuser-Busch InBev's market capitalization fell $5 billion over several weeks since the Mulvaney connection became public, that means the stock market value of ABI fell a grand total of 0.3%.

ABI's market capitalization is around $1321.8 billion; divide $5 billion by $1321.8 billion, and you get 0.3%.  That's not a big drop in the stock market.  In fact, InfoSys fell 9.78% April 13 – that's just one day – and it didn't have a trans influencer to help it.  On the same day, Progressive Corp., the insurance company, saw its stock drop 6.71%.

News organizations and commentators are entitled to their own opinions.  What they're not entitled to are their own facts. There is nothing to suggest that using a trans person in a Bud Light ad has hurt Anheuser-Busch at all.  In fact, the evidence suggests ABI should do it again.