We warned you more than a year ago that inflation would hurt the bev/al business.  Yes, we know, that experience tells us that people downshift in what they drink:  If they drink Knob Creek in good times, they drop to Jim Beam when times get tough.  Still a fine product, but at a lower price point.

That's fine for Beam Suntory, Brown-Forman, Diageo, Pernod Ricard or any other firm with a portfolio that covers many price points.  But for craft brewers and distillers, and especially boutique wineries, that primarily sell to restaurants, we think inflation is a problem and it is going to become a bigger problem.

The reason:  People buy the pricey stuff at restaurants.  If they don't eat out, they're not going to buy the pricey stuff – and, as we reported earlier, a Morning Consult survey found people are backing away from restaurants, bars (76% say they are going to bars less frequently) and 68% say they are cutting back on alcohol, especially high-priced alcohol.