To be honest, I have been gettingly increasing worried about the future of the alcohol beverage industry. Those worries burst the dam Saturday (10/12) when I read the cover story in the "Review" section of The Wall Street Journal – "I Was a Binge Drinker. This is How I Stopped."

This time is different, it seems to me, than the last anti-alcohol movement during the 1980s. Then it was led by mothers who had lost children to drunk drivers. The crusade they organized was simple: drunk driving is preventable. It did not call for people to stop drinking but to stop drinking to excess. It was a premise that echoed campaigns the industry itself had run for years, such as "Friends Don't Let Friends Drive Drunk." Miller Brewing Co. had run a catchy jingle, "Miller is the one beer to have when you're having only one." Other producers also ran responsibility messages.

In a matter of a few years, the industry responded with the creation by the Century Council, now Responsibility.org. Mothers Against Drunk Driving called for a 0.03 BAC limit, DISCUS and other trade groups argued that was absurdly low. Peter Cressy, DISCUS president, reached out to MADD and all parties agreed 0.08 was acceptable. It was lower that the 0.10% the bev/al industry really wanted, but higher than the 0.05% the MADD mothers wanted. Congress enacted 0.08% BAC into law.

Because everyone agreed drunk driving was a criminal act, the industry supportED passage of the STOP Act, a piece of legislation that was at the top of the National Beer Wholesalers Association's Legislative Conference agenda for several years. The industry also actively supported creation of drunk driving courts, which would give convicted drunk drivers a choice between prison and treatment under court supervision. The success rate of the DWI courts was significant.

At about the same time, CBS ran its famous "French Paradox" segment on 60 Minutes, the top-rated Sunday evening television show. The basic thesis, laid out by Morley Safer, was that the French eat a lot of foods that are supposed to be unhealthy, and yet they have lower death rates from coronary artery disease than Americans. The reason, he said, was the French drink a fair amount of red wine every day.

We correctly predicted this would be a game changer for the industry. While the drunk driving issue had been largely disposed of, groups such as Centers for Science in the Public Interest were running around saying bev/al was unhealthy, a line that was accepted by major media.

When the 60 Minutes segment aired, John DeLuca, president of the Wine Institute, organized a series of annual press lunches at which leading researchers at top universities explained why people who drank moderate amounts of alcohol had lower rates of all-cause deaths than either those whose drank to excess or total abstainers. That pretty much disposed of the health issue for another 30 years.

The final piece of luck was that an archeological dig at George Washington's Historic Mount Vernon uncovered the remains of his distillery. It turned out that Washington, one of the Founding Fathers of the U.S., had been a big-time whiskey producer who made significant sums making and selling whiskey. The Mount Vernon Ladies Association, which owns Mount Vernon, needed financial support to continue the excavation and to rebuild the distillery.

Through a member of the Brown family of Brown-Forman Corp., an approach was made to Cressy who got the support of the DISCUS board and quickly began raising money for the project. The Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America joined in. Through an annual dinner, along with other methods, DISCUS raised significant sums for George Washington's Distillery.

These three events – resolution of the drunk driving issue, the French Paradox and George Washington's Distillery – brought a 30-year period of calm to the industry. During this period, drunk driving deaths and underage drinking declined dramatically, several new treatments for alcoholism were developed, and industry members had every right to feel good about future prospects.

And then the World Health Organization released a report a couple of years ago claiming just one drink dramatically increased a person's risk of cancer. The study got dramatic attention in the press and elsewhere, and the industry really didn't have a quick answer except to dispute the "just one drink" approach.

Just as quickly as the public had turned against alcohol when MADD began publicizing the number of deaths of children caused by drunk drivers, and as quickly as the public turned to support alcohol after the 60 Minutes broadcast, once again public attitudes shifted against alcohol.

Without congressional authorization, the Department of Health & Human Services undertook to use funds intended to prevent underage drinking to launch a study of the health impacts of alcohol beverages on adults. The study, which is intended to "inform" the 2025 Dietary Guidelines for Americans" is being conducted by researchers known to be active crusaders against alcohol beverages.

Meanwhile, the anti-alcohol message is being repeated incessantly by major media. The New York Times has become essentially a mouthpiece of the one-drink-can-kill-you movement, as has the Washington Post. The WSJ story I cited earlier is another example.

If this was 30 years ago, there would be real reason to worry that the U.S. was entering a de facto period of neoProhibition. Anti-alcohol crusaders have been gleeful that what happened to tobacco will now happen to alcohol.

We don't think so. Everything we've seen suggests alcohol is the culprit and, as the medical saying goes, the dose determines the poison. In a rare instance, one drink might trigger a cancer. But in most cases, it will take more – a lot more – than a drink. This has two implications.

First, the industry can promote its products as a tool of socialbility. That's the premise of the Come Over October movement created by a wine writer and two wine publicist to encourage people to "come over," share a glass of wine and celebrate friendship and in-person connection. It's a start.

Second, during Dry October and Dry January the industry can promote its nonalcoholic products. Health concerns that might in days past have been perilous to the industry no longer have to be so, given that producers of nearly all sizes can produce alcoholic and nonalcoholic versions of the same product.

During the other parts of the year, the industry can promote its alcoholic products as a starting point to a convivial evening – with a switch to a nonalcoholic product after one or two. On this, the industry has a powerful endorsement: Not only did Jesus change water into wine rather than the other way around, but the steward at the wedding feast observed “Everyone brings out the choice wine first and then the cheaper wine after the guests have had too much to drink..." (John 2:10) With nonalcoholic beers, wines and spirits it's possible to keep the conviviality flowing and yet ensure the guests don't have too much to drink.