President Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods have cost U.S. winemakers $357 million in sales in the last year, the Wine Institute said. In a direct response to tariffs imposed by U.S., every single Canadian province pulled American alcohol beverages from their retail shelves. Only Alberta and Saskatchewan have left their bans.

In a just-issued fact sheet, the Wine Institute tallied the cost President Trump's tariffs on U.S. wine producers.

The good news: U.S. wine exports totaled $830 million across 202 million liters shipped. Volume in Japan grew, value in Mexico is on the rise and the market in the United Arab Emirates surged. The global picture was one of a resilient, competitive wine sector finding new customers and deepening existing relationships around the world.

However, Canada's response to President Trump's tariffs totaled $357 million in revenue, about 84% of all 2025 wine export losses. And while Wine Institute highlighted a recent tasting in Toronto as reinforcing California's relevance and helping rebuild connection with key gatekeepers ahead of a return of the state's wine to Canadian shelves, the fact remains Liquor Control Board of Ontario stores still do not stock U.S. wines and there is no date for their return.

To be sure, U.S. wine sales globally did decline, even without Canada. But Canada was by far the largest reason for the decline. Strip away Canada, Wine Institute said, and "U.S. wine export volume declined just 3% and value fell 10%. Canada’s bans account for 81% of all export value losses in 2025. Canada was not just the largest U.S. wine export market in 2024; at 36% of total export value, it was larger than the next three markets combined."

American wine remains globally competitive "when it isn't being blocked by politics," Wine Institute said. Indeed, Japan emerged as the year’s most compelling growth market, with export value rising 11% and volume up 21%.

Mexico posted a 7% increase in export value even as volume dipped slightly — a sign that Mexican consumers are trading up to higher-priced California wines. At $27.1 million, Mexico is a growing, accessible market with significant upside as premium wine culture continues to expand across the country.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) posted value growth of +69% driven by a fast-growing expatriate population, booming tourism and a premium hospitality sector that favors high-quality wines.

Trump's war on Iran – what ever its geopolitical positives – is likely to cause sales to the UAE to decline this year. Some 23 million to 38 million fewer tourism books are expected to the Middle East this year, and as a result Dubai Duty Free, which was responsible for more than $290 million in alcohol sales last year, suffered a massive drop as passenger traffic halted.