For December 2025, the Beer Institute estimates the volume of beer produced in the U.S. subject to excise tax at 10,800,000 barrels, a 5.8% year-over-year decrease.

In November, imported beer volumes grew 4% from last year.  The year-to-date trend through Novmber is down 5.3%. 

Andrew Heritage, the Beer Institute’s economist. notes that although the TTB will revise previous months upward (and the final two months of the year remain an estimate), the current 2025 figure for taxable removals is -5.9%. In 2025, approximately 139.1 million barrels of beer were produced and sold in the U.S.

The firat quarter showed the biggest decline – a 6.8%drop  in shipments and down 7.7% in depletions, Heritage notes. After the first quarter, beer sales declined at a far slower rate of -5.2% in shipments and -4.5% in depletions over the final three quarters.

The outlook for 2026

Thus far in 2026, the picture is mixed, with some early weeks in January offering positive industry trends and then recent weeks are softer but made difficult to interpret by nearly three straight weeks of below-average, freezing temperatures with large amounts of snow and ice on the ground throughout the Midwest, Northeast, and extending down to the Mid-Atlantic.

The first four weeks ending in January showed industry growth of 2.5%, followed by two weeks of declines. This was the most prolonged period of consecutive weeks of industry growth in years. Furthermore, industry volumes did not begin to decline until late January last year, indicating the industry favorably cycled some of its most difficult weekly comps it will face in 2026.

The most recent two weeks of declines cloud the picture a bit, but have been steepest in states with continued harsh winter weather. An initial look at the load-in for the Super Bowl shows Texas grew volume by 2.6%, while all other states declined. Beer sales in the on-premise continue to outpace off-premise sales, suggesting consumers are willing to spend on beer.

2026 will show signs of industry stabilization, Heritage says, with a long list of beer-drinking occasions over the summer months, as U.S. host cities are 11 of the 16 North American sites for this summer’s World Cup. Celebrations for America 250 and a favorable weekend date for July 4th will add further momentum.

The bottom line: Headwinds remain, but there are plenty of opportunities on the board.

Consumers remain uncertain over the future state of the economy and pessimistic about its current state, Heritage says. Aggregate macroeconomic figures show an expanding economy despite a slowing labor market and growth trajectory. “Yet, there will be plenty of reasons for Americans to celebrate over the year with a beer, which will lead to industry stabilization.”