It's likely to be much more messy than the last time, 1997, because we all are much more reliant of UPS. For many of us, those heavy bags of dog food are delivered by UPS, ingredients for our favorite recipes that aren't available at local stores are delivered by UPS, beer, wine and spirits are delivered in many states by UPS.
The odds of a strike? Better than break even. UPS's 350,000 Teamster union members are still angry about a contract they feel was forced on them five years ago. The members rejected it, but it was pushed through by union leadership based on a technicality. It's one reasons workers chose Sean O'Brien to lead the Teamsters, rather than a candidate favored by Jimmy Hoffa, the longtime union head.
The impact? UPS delivers an average of 24 million packages a day. That's about 25% of all U.S. parcel volume and represents about 6% of the nation's gross domestic product.
If you're not planning for a strike, you should be. And the bev/al lobbyists who favor US Postal Service also having the ability to deliver beer, wine and spirits will have a textbook example of why a Prohibition-era law that keeps USPS from delivering your products should be repealed.