The total value of the U.S. wine market rose by more than 3% to $114 billion in the 12 months through January. but total market volume headed in the opposite direction declining 3.4% to 374 million cases.

That's the estimate from market research firm bw166.

Domestic table wine volume declined nearly 6% to 200 million cases. “The total market is better, but I don’t think a lot of people feel it,” said Jon Moramarco who is the founder of bw166 and the editor of the Gomberg Fredrikson Report, which has featured comprehensive wine market data for decades. “About 1/3 of wineries are growing, 1/3 are flat and 1/3 are declining.”

The 2025 winegrape harvest is widely estimated to have been between 2 and 2.5 million tons, which is nearly half of what the state could produce on average. If U.S. wine demand remains at its current level, the industry would need around 3 million tons; meaning even more wineries will likely be shuttered, sold or converted to other uses by the end of the year< Moramarco said.

“There’s a quarter of total production capacity that still needs to come out,” Moramarco said. “We’re not running around like the sky is falling because the sky has kind of fallen already.”