That's Turrentine Brokerage's assessment of the 2025 California Grape Crush Report.

The 2025 Grape Crush Report highlights a pivotal moment in the restructure of the California wine industry. Wineries planned to go light on this vintage, and it is estimated that 57,000 acres were removed with significantly more unharvested in 2025.

This strategic decision, combined with the seasonal challenges, has accelerated the market’s transition. The five-year average crop size from 2019 to 2023 was 3.6 million tons. The efforts to reduce crop size in 2025 has resulted in a decrease of 1 million tons from the five-year average, or the equivalent of 72 million cases.

But there's a worrisome cloud on the horizon: While the industry is largely trending toward a decline in total production, Sauvignon Blanc increased 22,000 tons and Pinot Gris increased 8,000 tons from 2024. This is concerning with more acres coming into production on both varieties, and Sauvignon Blanc is being heavily discussed between nurseries and growers for additional plantings.

Key Takeaways from 2025:

• A Correction in Volume: The 2025 crop is the lightest on record since 1999. This reduction is attributed not only to weather and acreage removals, but also a lack of grape demand, which left significant tonnage uncontracted and unharvested.
• Reduced Crop Value: The total 2025 crop value throughout California was down 16% from last year to $2.414 billion, and down 22% from the five-year average. Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Pinot Noir, and Zinfandel declined more than $330 billion in total crop value from last year.
• Low Market Activity: Buying activity for grapes and bulk wine remained low statewide through the end of the season. Late-season activity was largely limited to opportunistic plays in the North Coast and Paso Robles for Cabernet Sauvignon, with minimal movement to replace grapes rejected due to disease pressure.

According to the new state data, the total tons crushed came in at 2.62 million tons, a figure that is above initial projections and well above what was felt by the industry. This statewide volume is 8% below 2024 and 23% below the 5-year average. Total red wine production declined by 9% and white wine production declined by 6%. “The decrease in tons is still very positive news for the industry overall,” said Steve Fredricks, President at Turrentine Brokerage.

“The 2025 vintage highlights the industry’s directional shift of declining production and an overall restructure of the industry. 2025 represented continued challenges for growers and wineries that were strikingly apparent at harvest,” said Audra Cooper, Vice President at Turrentine Brokerage. “Between a cooler growing season, reduced vineyard inputs, and multiple rain events which led to excessive late-season disease pressure and combined with soft demand, 2025’s challenges were relentless.”

Key Takeaways from 2025:

• A Correction in Volume: The 2025 crop is the lightest on record since 1999. This reduction is attributed not only to weather and acreage removals, but also a lack of grape demand, which left significant tonnage uncontracted and unharvested.
• Reduced Crop Value: The total 2025 crop value throughout California was down 16% from last year to $2.414 billion, and down 22% from the five-year average. Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay, Pinot Noir, and Zinfandel declined more than $330 billion in total crop value from last year.
• Low Market Activity: Buying activity for grapes and bulk wine remained low statewide through the end of the season. Late-season activity was largely limited to opportunistic plays in the North Coast and Paso Robles for Cabernet Sauvignon, with minimal movement to replace grapes rejected due to disease pressure.