Alc Sales See Modest Weekly Lift: NIQ; Consumer Pullback Pressure Continues

During the four weeks ending October 10th, Total Alcohol remained under pressure. Dollar sales reached $8.1 billion, down -2.4% from a year ago, while case volume totaled 156.9 million, declining -4.5% vs a year earlier.

Weekly dollar sales totaled $2 billion, up 0.5% versus the week ending Oct. 3. Despite the week-over-week (WoW) gain, consumers continue to consolidate occasions and spending, limiting the category's ability to generate sustained growth as October progresses.

Prepared Cocktails Beer, Wine, and Spirits (BWS) continued to distance itself from the broader industry, posting dollar sales growth of +1.7%, despite volume declining -2.4%. While growth softened from recent periods, RTDs remain the only major segment posting dollar gains as consumers continue to prioritize convenience and variety.

Beer remained the industry's largest source of declines, with dollar sales down 3.4% and volume falling 5%. Despite the heart of football season, anticipated Fall demand has yet to materialize, leaving trends below already soft year-ago levels.

Beer’s top segments weighed on performance once again. Domestic Premium delivered the fastest declines, with dollar sales down -7.6% and volume falling -8.6%, while Craft slipped -5.3% in value and -6.9% in volume. Import declined further (-1.7% in value, -3.2% in volume). Previous Domestic Super Premium growth turned more modest, with dollar sales at +0.8% and volume +0.4%. Other positive contributors included Cider and Non-Alcoholic Beer. Cider increased +5.0% in value and +3.5% in cases, while Non-Alcoholic Beer accelerated +7.5% in value and +6.8% in volume

Wine recorded losses to beer, with dollar sales slipping 3.2% and volume dropping 4.9%. Seasonal tailwinds have yet to translate into improved performance as the category continues to face fewer consumption occasions.

During the four weeks ending October 10th, Still Wine underperformance held on, with dollar sales down -3.9% and volume sliding -5.4%. Sparkling Wine still seeing some lift, with dollar gains of +1.4% and soft volume decline -0.1%. Non-Alcoholic Wine also maintained growth, with dollar sales increasing +18.5% and volume up +16.1%. The overarching category theme remains the same as Wine’s smaller growth pockets are overshadowed by the pronounced weakness seen in Still Wine

Spirits once again outperformed traditional alcohol peers, with both dollar and volume sales declining -2.1%. While still under pressure, Spirits remains notably more resilient than Beer and Wine as consumers gravitate toward higher-value purchases.

Across the top Spirits categories, (Vodka, Whiskey, and Tequila), uneven trends continued. Whiskey drove category declines, as dollar sales fell -4.3% and volume dropped -5.0%. Vodka declined further, after seeing the temporary relief from September, down -1.2% in value and -1.9% in volume. Tequila followed a similar path, still growing value and volume but deaccelerating (+0.9% and +5.1% respectively). Non-Alcoholic Spirits growth continued, with dollar sales rising +19.8% and volume up +18.8%. All other Spirits segments also slowed down, with dollar sales down -1.8% and volume declining -2.5%

The gap between category winners and losers widened through early October. Prepared Cocktails (BWS) continue to generate growth despite a challenging environment; Spirits remains the most stable traditional alcohol segment, while Beer and Wine face increasing pressure as Fall demand trends fall short of expectations.

Ohio and California remain relative bright spots

Regional trends were a reflection of industry softness seen nationwide, with all of the top ten state markets recording declines in dollar sales.

• Ohio remained the strongest-performing major market despite moving into negative territory, with dollar sales declining -1.0% and volume falling -3.7%. California was close behind, with dollars down -1.1% and volume declining -1.5%. Both markets continued to outperform peers even as growth became increasingly difficult to find.
• New Jersey, which had consistently ranked among the strongest state performers in recent weeks, slipped further from contention with dollar sales declining -1.5%, though volume remained relatively resilient at +0.6%. Massachusetts emerged as the weakest major market, overtaking Washington with dollar sales down -7.7% and case volume declining -10.5%.

State-level results point to a market where performance gaps remain, but opportunities for growth have become increasingly scarce. Ohio and California continue to separate themselves from the broader field. At the opposite end, losses in markets such as Massachusetts and Washington illustrate how regional headwinds continue to weigh on overall alcohol performance.