FIFA fuels Beer and Spirits resilience; Prepared Cocktails bolster upward trajectory

The latest Total Alcohol sales trends "underscore the fragility of the industry, with performance heavily dependent on seasonal and event driven influences to usurp broader challenges." NIQ reports.

Prepared Cocktails stand firm in positive territory, swaying much less than the unstable core categories, while Wine is the biggest lagger in the industry. Spirits may have found a near term pocket of resilience, joining Beer in some form of stable declines, both supported by FIFA viewership and summer led drinking opportunities.

During the four weeks ending June 27, Total Alcohol trailed year-earlier results. Dollar sales reached $8.8 billion, down 3.1% vs a year ago, while case volume totaled 173.3 million cases, declining 4.9% vs the like year-earlier period.

On a weekly basis, dollar sales dropped to $2.2 billion from the prior week ended June 20, reflecting a noticeable 2.2% week-over=week decrease. The deceleration in weekly sales may be attributed to demand normalizing after Juneteenth weekend, however, ongoing FIFA World Cup and summer drinking occasions continue to offer opportunity for stability, NIQ said.

Prepared Cocktails sustained its encouraging performance, with dollar sales up 1.2%, while case volume fell -4.1%. The numerous factors driving the strength of this segment are ongoing, tied to summer occasions and convenient RTD consumption.

Wine led industry declines, as category weakness fell in line with the prior period (week ended June 20), with dollar sales down 4.5% and volume decreasing 6.2%. Spirits showed improvement, with dollar sales declining 3.9% and volume down 4%.

Performance strengthened compared to the prior latest four weeks, as FIFA World Cup drinking occasions ensue and allow for a long-awaited category benefit.

Beer maintained the slowest contraction, with dollar sales down 3.5% and volume falling 5.0%, as the category holds on to the stability it has shown throughout June.

Everything considered, latest Total Alcohol trends underscore the fragility of the industry, with performance heavily dependent on seasonal and event-driven influences to usurp broader challenges. Prepared Cocktails stand firm in positive territory, swaying much less than the unstable core categories, while Wine is the biggest lagger in the industry. Spirits may have found a near-term pocket of resilience, joining Beer in some form of stable declines, both supported by FIFA viewership and summer led drinking opportunities.

Regional Trends: NJ Top Performer

Regional trends remain in line with U.S. results, with widespread pressure and few bright spots. New Jersey was the top outperformer, with dollar sales up 1.2% and volume up 5.9%. Ohio faced the most stable declines, with dollars down 0.6% and volume down 4.8%. Illinois was the top lagger, usurping California, with dollar sales down 5.8% and volume declining 8%.

Volume trends showed similar performance across key states. New Jersey led volume growth of 5.9% and dollars up 1.2%. Illinois led losses, 8% in volume and 5.8% in dollars.

Overall, the latest results show continued imbalance in demand across key states, positive trends seen New Jersey and have been unable to fully make up for weakness in other states, primarily Illinois. Additionally, the impact of FIFA world cup on states involving host cities hasn’t been seen but continues to be worth monitoring.

Retail Nearly Absent of Bright Spots

Retail channel trends sustained broad softness, with latest results nearly absent of bright spots, Convenience led dollar losses 4%, Food followed 3.1%, Liquor -.8%, and Mass -.3%. Positive trends were solely held by Club +0.2% and All Other up 0.2%, with both delivering modest growth.

Volume trends shared the softness seen in dollar results, with Convenience leading declines at down 6.7%, followed by Mass down 4.8%, Food down 4.6%, Liquor down 3.9%, while Club (up 2.1%) and All Others (up 3.3%) saw increases.

Compared with the prior four-week period (June 20h), All Others appear as the standout channels, building strength after its previous dollar declines (-0.4%) and volume growth (+3.2%).

Spirits: Near-Term Strength

In the four weeks ending June 27, Spirits experienced losses, though declines continue to slow, with dollar sales down 3.9% and volume falling 4.0%. This outcome was predominantly driven by decreased consumer interest and engagement factors defined by trend, accounting for 94% of total declines, which outweighed the growth seen in distribution and promotion this period.

Across top categories, (Vodka, Whiskey, and Tequila), softness continued at varied levels. Whiskey held firm as the loss leader, with dollar sales down 4.5% and volume slipping 5.1%, Vodka followed (-4.4% in value, -4.3% in volume). Contrastingly, Tequila exhibited much more stable performance, falling -2.2% in value, flat in volume, benefitting from ongoing summer drinking occasions where the category fits consumer interests.

Wine: Slump Moves into Late June

In the four weeks ending June 27th, Wine held relatively consistent pressure, with dollar sales down -4.5% and volume declining -6.2%. The losses were led by a lack of product distribution (30% of decline), less promotional sales (16%), and decreased consumer interest (54%). On a weekly basis, trends further decelerated, with sales decreasing to $371.9M from $ 376.0M (-1.1% WoW), underscoring the instability of Wine and the category’s need to immerse itself in the mix of summer drinking occasion wherever possible.

But Sparkline Wine's stability grew, inching toward Non-Alc in positive territory. During the four weeks ending June 27th, Still Wine saw the largest losses with dollar sales down -5.1% and volume slipping -6.6%. Sparkling Wine came next with much slower declines, down -0.9% in dollars and -2.3% in volume, continuing to make the most of its fit into summer drinking occasions. Non-Alcoholic Wine was the sole growth segment, with dollar sales up +15.2% and volume increasing +11.1%, driven by ongoing health and wellness trends.

Beer: A Minor Setback

During the four weeks ending June 27th, Still Wine saw the largest losses with dollar sales down -5.1% and volume slipping -6.6%. Sparkling Wine came next with much slower declines, down -0.9% in dollars and -2.3% in volume, continuing to make the most of its fit into summer drinking occasions. Non-Alcoholic Wine was the sole growth segment, with dollar sales up +15.2% and volume increasing +11.1%, driven by ongoing health and wellness trends.