Global Alcohol Consumption to Continue Decline for Six More Years

You have six more years of pain before the global bev/al market sees consumption resuming growth in 2031. 

That's the projection from IWSR, the global leader in beverage alcohol data and insights, in its annual global data release.

But IWSR also forecasts global volume will rebound almost to all of its 2025 level by 2035, The result: Over the next 10 years, total volume will have fallen just 1% from its 2025 level. 

The stabilization in global volume from 2031 will be driven by two main factors: a substantial rebalancing of the global market, and continued growth in the worldwide drinking age population.  

“The forecast stabilization in global beverage alcohol volumes is good news for the industry, but there are still plenty of challenges ahead. 2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today," warns Marten Lodewijks, President/Managing Director of IWSR. He adds:

"Producers will need to cater to changing consumer tastes in established markets as well as prepare for significant changes in where consumption is taking place. Companies that only rely on past successes to carry them through the next decade will face serious challenges,” 

The global beverage alcohol market will be shifting away from China, North America and Europe to India, South America and Africa. This is most clearly illustrated by looking at consumption by servings, which better accounts for the different serving size volumes of different categories. 

The number of beverage alcohol servings consumed in China in 2035 is forecast to be -19% lower than it was in 2025. Other large falls in total beverage servings consumed over the same period are the United States (-18%), Japan (-15%), Germany (-14%), and the United Kingdom (-13%). 

Meanwhile, servings consumed annually from 2025 to 2035 will surge in Mexico (+13%), Vietnam (+15%), Colombia (+26%) and India (+38%).  

When measured by servings, India is forecast to surpass the United States in 2032 to become the second-largest market for beverage alcohol in the world after China. 

Forecast drinking age population growth 

Moderation, whether driven by lifestyle or economic factors, will continue to be a growing trend over the next decade. Global annual per capita liters of pure alcohol is forecast to drop by half a liter by 2035 (a drop approximately equivalent to two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year).  

While this is a significant decline in consumption, the rate of decline is slowing. Meanwhile, the population of legal drinking age consumers is forecast to grow by 9% over the same period. This growth in consumer numbers is sufficient to bring total global volume in 2035 to just -1% lower than 2025 volume. 

Ongoing global shifts in category consumption are forecast to continue 

“In 2025, consumers continued seeking flavor exploration, convenience and ABV diversity to suit their consumption occasions," said Luke Tegner, IWSR Head of Consulting. "This is driving a shift in consumption away from more established categories like wine and spirits to RTDs. Global RTD consumption reached 1 billion 9 litre cases for the first time in 2025, and there is no sign of this trend abating anytime soon.”

At the category level, beer volume reflects the broader beverage alcohol trend by declining globally from 2025 to 2035 by -1%.  

Global wine volume is forecast to drop by -14%, while global spirits consumption is forecast to lose -2% volume.  

RTDs will continue their strong growth, however, with +17% volume forecast for the next decade. 

Confirmed 2025 global data headlines 

In addition to updating its global forecasts, IWSR has also released confirmed 2025 data for all 160 markets it tracks. 

From 2024 to 2025, global total beverage alcohol volume declined by -2%.  

Among major categories over the same period, global beer volume declined -2%, global wine volume was down -5%, and global spirits volume lost -3%. The volume of RTDs consumed globally grew +3%. 

At the national level, 66 of the 165 markets tracked by IWSR in 2025 saw the number of servings of beverage alcohol consumed grow from 2024 levels. 83 markets saw declines, and 12 markets remained flat (0% change). 

Several of the world’s largest markets experienced meaningful declines. China saw a -7% drop in servings consumed during 2025. The US saw a -4% decline in servings, Germany experienced a -5% drop in servings, and the UK saw servings decline -2%. 

The largest markets that experienced growth were India (+4% servings), Colombia (+4% servings), and South Africa (+1% servings). 

Other highlights 

Several beverage alcohol subcategories enjoyed very strong global growth in 2025. These include: 

• No alcohol beer – up +8% volume 
• Indian whiskey – up +4% volume 
• Stout – up +4% volume 
• RTD cocktails – +14% volume 
• Soju (outside Korea) – +9% volume 

For the first time since IWSR records began in 1990, the total volume of spirits consumed worldwide exceeded the total volume of wine consumed. Both categories declined in volume in 2025, but spirits’ more moderate volume decline (-3%) was sufficient for it to surpass wine volume (-5%).  

As predicted in last year’s forecast, no-alcohol beer was the second-largest subcategory of beer by volume in 2025. In this year’s forecast, no-alcohol beer is expected to double its share of the global beer market by volume from 2% in 2025 to 4% by 2033.