SipSource Finds 'Signs of Stabilization Emerging'

One of the Golden Rules of forecasting is to predict either a time or a trend, but never both at the same time. And so it is with the latest SipSource report which says, "After more than two years of declines, SipSource data shows volume and revenue trends are improving, with recent three-month performance outpacing longer-term trends—suggesting the market may be laying the groundwork for recovery." Notice the triple hedge: "suggesting" the market "may be" "laying the groundwork" for recovery.

This forecast is 100% accurate. The market will recover. As to when, SipSource wisely won't say.

It notes that distribution is strengthening. "Product availability is becoming more stable," SipSource says, which is 100% accurate, again. The reason: The collapse of RNDC is nearing its end. Suppliers are getting a pretty firm grip on who their distributor will be – or if they will have a distributor.

The on-premise channel also warrants close watching. Early signs suggest restaurants and bars may benefit from increased travel and tourism tied to this summer's FIFA World Cup events. If that momentum continues through the summer, on-premise performance could outpace off-premise in the third quarter. Still, a broader industry recovery will depend on retail improvement where off-premise trends remain the biggest headwind.

Looking ahead, year-over-year comparisons should become more favorable as the industry moves through the remainder of 2026, SipSourc says. The difficult fourth quarter of 2025 creates easier comparisons that could provide a modest tailwind if underlying consumer demand remains stable.

Several categories are already showing encouraging signs, SipSource says. Unflavored Vodka continues to improve, with latest three-month volume down just -1.8%. Tequila Añejo has significantly narrowed its declines, improving from -15.6% over the latest 12 months to -6.6% over the latest three months.

In wine, Champagne revenue has surged 10.4% over the latest three months, while Sauvignon Blanc continues to post healthy revenue growth of 2.6%. Pinot Noir also showed renewed momentum in June with revenue increasing 1.9%, though the variety remains down -4.4% over the latest three months.

The industry has not yet returned to growth, but the narrative may be starting to shift, SipSource says. The focus is moving from how much conditions are deteriorating to whether the market is building a foundation for gradual recovery. The next several months will determine whether today's improving indicators can become sustained momentum, SipSource concludes.