U.S. Beer Production Rises 2.5% in Year

Beer Institute estimates U.S. brewers produced 12.7 million barrels of beer in March, a 2.5% in year-over-year. "After a slight increase last month, March was the largest monthly increase since May 2024, signaling further stability from the mainstream beer segment," says Andrew Heritage, the Institute's economic wizard.

Beer imported into the U.S. rose 2.85 in March, Heritage notes, citing Commerce Department statistics. Mexico was the big driver in imports, with its export volume to the U.S. increasing 8.4%. But for the first quarter, imported beer from Mexico fell 2.9%.

All this adds up to total industry supply in March increasing by 2.5%, the strongest monthly gain since May 2024, Heritage says.

• For the first quarter of 2026, total supply is down 3%, driven by weak January shipments due to extreme winter weather.
• The year-to-date trend has converged with other industry metrics over the past two months, but is still running behind the industry depletions trend.
• For comparison, the year-to-date depletions trend through March was -1.6%.

Heritage notes there's been talk of an economic slowdown in the broader macroeconomy and its potential impact on the beer industry. But, he says, there is no conclusive evidence that a consumer pullback is underway. Instead, consumer spending remains strong despite low levels of consumer sentiment.

Good news on-premise: There is no conclusive evidence yet of channel switching where consumers spend their dollars on beer.

The on-premise has consistently run ahead of the off-premise for most of the past year, but higher gas prices have been thought to erode discretionary spending budgets and shift spending back toward the off-premise.

Instead, the on-premise has outgained off-premise sales in five of the past eight weeks (though April 25) and continues to run 1.3 percentage points ahead over those weeks.

Spending in the first quarter on beer showed consumers seeking out beer around social experiences in the concession channel (+1.6%) and recreation (-0.1%). "We don’t yet see a meaningful shift in spending to other channels," he says.