Wine's Problem? High Cost

45% of people between the ages of 21 to 28 and 38% of Millennials say they are interested in drinking more wine, but the higher cost of wine compared to other beverages is putting it at a disadvantage.

That's the surprising conclusion in the 2026 BMO Wine Market Report, which otherwise is full of gloom and doom:

• Market volume fell 4% last year to 362 million 9 liter cases, even though value grew 3%.
• In less than a decade, the amount of wine entering the U.S. market from California fell nearly 25%.
• More than 30% of all wineries are looking to sell off their estate product as bulk, and 11% are holding bottled but unlabeled wine they may be forced to sell to be labeled by another winery.
• "It's now clear that the challenges in the wine market come from historic, structural change in consumer demographics that will reshape the industry."
• Total U.S. wine market volume now is about the same as a decade ago, but the number of wineries is about 50% larger.

Adding to the misery is something the industry can't control – the affordability challenge. Not only have companies reduced hiring, they have also shed employees and many employers have said they are certain they can operate leaner and more efficiently with less human know-how and more artificial intelligence. Add to that, new student loan repayment plans increase payments for new graduates. . . meaning they are "likely not in the market for a $20 glass of wine (or even a bottle at the price)."

And then there's the media challenge. "As the consumer wine media has migrated from print to digital, no single critical voice has emerged to drive consumption or winemaking, like the hugely influential Robert Parker, who even helped drive the popularity of critics and winemakers who sought wines that embodied the opposite of Parker’s preferences. There are said to be more wine “influencers” than ever before, but this vast, fragmented cacophony of opinions expressed via YouTube, TikTok, and elsewhere hasn’t helped lift the wine category," the report notes.

Obscured by all the strum und drung is the simple fact that thousands of wineries did grow their business last year, and many are expecting more growth this year. Their secret? They are leaner, more efficient and leverage new technology to do more and faster than ever.

For the 33% of wineries that reported sales growth, the BMO study says the median increase over the previous year was 8.5%. For the 55% of wineries reporting lower sales, the decline was 10.5%. Where did that decrease occur? For 74%, in DtC sales, yet 50% of all wineries expect to increase DtC sales this year.

The challenge, the BMO study concludes, is rebuilding and creating demand. Unfortunately, the playbooks of previousdeades offer little guidance.