I misspoke a couple of days ago when I said President Trump's attack on Iran would have little if any impact on the bev/al industry. I was thinking about shipping lanes and the fact alcohol is prohibited in the Muslim-dominated Middle Eastern countries.

But attacks on Middle Eastern refineries will have a significant impact on global oil supplies since the major middle eastern countries represent one-third of the world's oil. Damage to Middle Eastern refineries along with many shipping lanes being closed mean global oil prices will rise; there's talk they could go to $100 a barrel. That, in turn, would boost gas prices at the pump by 50 cents to 75 cents a gallon.

Since oil is key to getting consumer goods to market, those higher prices will be passed through to consumers everywhere, sucking up money that would otherwise be spent by consumers. Economists general estimate a $10 oil increase adds 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points to the consumer prices.

The sectors most affected: Aviation, trucking, shipping, farm fuel, fertilizers, transportation to supermarkets, plastics, and chemicals. These indirect effects usually show up with a lag of several months.

Historically, and counterintuitively war has always been bad for consumer economies.