No Significant Rebound Yet as Softness Extends into Mid-May: NIQ

Total alcohol lagged year-earlier levels during the four weeks that ended May 16, NIQ reports. Perhaps even worse news is that Prepared Cocktails are sharing in the weakness.

For the last four weeks, ended May 16, Dollar sales reached $8.3 billion, but fell -4.6% from a year earlier. That higher dollar sales level masks the worse performance in volume – case volume totaled 161.3 million, down -6.1% vs a year earlier.

On a weekly basis, dollar sales grew slightly compared to the prior period (w/e May 9th), reaching $2.1B and reflecting a +0.8% week-over-week (WoW) gain. While the L4W softness can be partially attributed to a Post-Cinco de Mayo pullback, mid-May sales trends suggest room for improvement as we move further into favorable seasonable demand.

Cross-category pressure continues as Prepared Cocktails share weakness

Prepared Cocktails sustained slight declines, once again absent of its position as a category growth driver, as dollar sales fell -0.7%, with case volume down -5.7%.

• Spirits returned to leading declines, usurping Wine, though losses were smaller than the prior period, as dollar sales fell -5.2% and volume fell -4.7%.
• Beer closely matched this underperformance, no longer holding the most stable trends among traditional categories, with declines of -5.2% in dollars and -6.3% in volume
• Wine held the smallest decline this period after previously leading declines, however the difference was marginal compared to Spirits and Beer, as dollar sales fell -5.0% and volume fell -6.1%.

Latest Total Alcohol performance further points to a challenged environment across categories in despite of Spring’s seasonal demand, NIQ says. Prepared Cocktails struggle to offer the growth seen in recent months, while Spirits reside in a state of ongoing decline. Beer headwinds have accelerated to no longer achieving the most stable losses, and Wine sits at a relatively consistent level of underperformance.

Midwest stability offset by pressure in Mass. and NY

Regional trends aligned with the broader Total U.S. underperformance, with no major states experiencing growth. Ohio faced the slowest declines, with dollar sales down -1.5%, followed by Michigan at -2.3%. New York returned to being the top decliner, usurping Massachusetts (-6.6%), as sales fell by -6.8%. • Volume trends mostly followed sales performance across the top ten states. New Jersey experienced the most stable declines at -2.2%, while Ohio followed at -4.5%. New York posted the steepest volume losses at -8.3%.

Overall, the Total Alcohol drag is ongoing across major states, though varied levels of pressure indicate differences in recovery potential. Ohio and Michigan, both Midwest states, maintain relative stability while New York weighs most heavily on the industry.

Convenience leads underperformance, while Club offers stability in mid May. Retail channel trends showed softness across outlets at divergent levels. Convenience led declines , d

Wine maintains lackluster trends in mid May

In the four weeks ending May 16, Wine experienced familiar softness, with dollar sales down -5% and case volume declining -6.1%. Weekly sales dropped to $384.4M, down from $388.1M (-1.0% WoW), as the category faces relatively flat losses moving deeper into May.

Sparkling Wine underperformance persists, limiting category stability During the four weeks ending May 16th, Sparkling Wine stood firm as the top decliner, with dollar sales down -8.1% and volume falling -10.1%. Still Wine posted slower declines, down -4.7% in dollars and -5.8% in volume. Non-Alcoholic Wine continued to outperform, with dollar sales up +14.9% and volume increasing +11.1%, fueled by ongoing health and wellness trends