Heed this warning from Sovos ShipCompliant: Premium wines priced above $50 shipped direct to consumers are winning in just one area only: A larger share of a shrinking market.

The value of wines shipped direct to consumers and priced above $50 slipped 1% compared to 2024, while the total volume fell 7%, according to Sovos ShipCompliant.

Wines priced above $100 did better. Their value grew 5% year-over-year while volumes declined just 2%. In contrast, wines priced less than $40 did worse, declining 18% by value and 21% by volume.

This isn't a case of premiumization, which is wine drinkers buying the same amount at higher prices, but rather "mix shift" – shipments of the most expensive wines now account for a larger share of the total market as fewer bottles of more affordable wines are shipped DtC.  

This change appears to have been occurring even during the Covid period. But it wasn't recognized because "wineries in all regions and of all sizes and price points relied on the DtC channel to offset losses from the on-premise market and other disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic."

As the pandemic came to an end, many wineries raised their prices to provide "free" shipping. Shipping isn't free, of course; it's just included in the product price. At the same time, consumers pulled back on spending for a number of reasons – some related to alcohol and health, the economy, etc.

There are warning signs about continued price increases, even as economic pressures squeeze margins. One such warning uncovered in Sovos ShipCompliant's research: The value of wines priced more than $50 eased 1% – but the volume of such wines shipped direct to consumers fell 7%. Some of that "value" growth was from the same amount of wine claiming a larger share of a shrinking market.