Prepared Cocktails Escape Instability; Pressures Mount Elsewhere

During the four weeks ending July 25, Total Alcohol trailed vs. YA. Dollar sales slipped 3.2% from a year earlier to $9.1 billion, while case volume totaled 180.9 million, declining -4.8% vs a year earlier, NIQ reports.

On a weekly basis, dollar sales marginally increased, reaching $2.1 billion, up 1.1% from the week ending July 18th. The subtle sales bump reflects the flat state of the industry, as the category looks to make the most of warm weather led drinking occasion in the back half of summer.

Prepared Cocktails remained the sole growth contributor across categories, with dollar sales up 0.3% while case volume fell 4.5%. The segment’s alignment to current consumer preferences continues to allow for strong performance in despite of adverse macro factors.

Wine recorded the largest declines once again, with dollar sales down 4.2% and volume falling 5.7%. The combination of headwinds hindering the category’s performance persist through July’s end.

Spirits followed with similar losses after previously showing strength in early July, as dollar sales dropped 4.1% and volume decreased by 4.4%. The category’s short-lived relief from the FIFA World Cup is fleeting, as the underlying factors behind Spirits declines re-emerge.

Beer faced slowest declines, as dollar sales were down -3.5% and volume slipped -4.8%. This relative stability is aligned to industry trends seen throughout the year, even as Beer shares the consumption challenges of other categories.

In summary, the industry is moving progressively through unstable terrain after a brief glimpse of smoother pastures. Prepared Cocktails power forward as the category best fit for broader alcohol headwinds. Wine is experiencing the blunt of demand weakness, while Spirits and Beer navigate smaller but familiar softness.

Regional Performance

Alcohol sales underperformed against year ago in each key market in the latest period, as each top 10 state saw dollar and volume losses.

Michigan maintained the most stable declines, with dollar sales slipping by 0.4% and volume down 3.1%. Contrastingly, Massachusetts experienced the most pressure, with sales falling 6.3% and volume down 7.7%.

Volume trends were primarily identical to dollar results. Michigan posted the slowest volume declines whereas Massachusetts topped the volume losses.

All in all, the alcohol downturn seen in total US remains as a shared experience nationwide, with few states showing resilient performance. Michigan is a clear area of strength, nearly reaching positive territory in dollar sales, while demand strains are most shown in Massachusetts.

Retail Channels

Retail channel performance reflected Total US headwinds, as every major channel saw dollar losses. Liquor saw the steepest decline at 3.5%, followed by Food and Convenience, both down 3.4%. Club 2.1%, and Mass 1.6% showed be slightly stronger, while All Other was the only channel in positive standing, up 2.8%.

A Weekly Boost for Spirits,

During the four weeks ending July 25, Spirits momentum lessened further, with dollar sales declining 4.1% and volume down 4.4%. A mix of reduced consumer demand and broader category headwinds remained the primary drivers of the Spirits contraction (92% decline), eclipsing gains from strong distribution and promotional support.

On a weekly basis Spirits sales improved slightly, totaling $513.5 million, up +1.0% from the week ending July 18. Spirits recovery remains contingent upon summer-led drinking occasions, with recent trends showing the category struggling to sustain stability shown in early July.

Minor Weekly Uptick for Wine

Limited signs of emergence for Wine, with a minor weekly uptick in late July. In the four weeks ending July 25, Wine softness continued, with dollar sales down 4.2% and volume declining 5.7%. Category causals suggest contracting distribution accounting for 25% of declines, less effective promotions (16%) and diminished consumer engagement (60%).

From a weekly perspective, trends were somewhat encouraging, with dollar sales totaling $361.9 M, up 1.1% from the prior week. Wine’s pursuit for notable progress continues to be a defining theme this summer, with signs of improvement yet to materialize in a true turnaround.

During the four weeks ending July 25, Still Wine led each segment in declines, with dollar sales down 4.9% and volume declining 6.1%. In contrast, Sparkling Wine managed to keep stable trends, with dollar sales down just 0.1% and volume falling 0.9%.

Meanwhile, Non-Alcoholic Wine was the category’s common bright spot, with dollar sales increasing 15.7% and volume rising 12.1%, pushing further into positive territory albeit a minor contribution.

Beer shows minimal resilience

In the four weeks ending July 25th, Beer fell short of a year ago, dollar sales declined 3.5% and case volume fell 4.8%. Demand-related impacts held as the leading source of category declines, making up 76% of total losses, while product distribution limitations making up an additional 20%.

Weekly performance grew stronger as dollar sales reached $935.1 from $923.9M the prior week, representing a 1.1% WoW increase. The category strength is backed by well-aligned seasonal influences but remains pressured with broad reduced consumption factors.

Traditional segments drive category softness, led by Domestic Premium (-7.3% in value, -8.3% in volume) and Craft (-6.6% in value, -8.2% in volume). Imported Beer saw comparatively milder losses (-2.4% in value, -3.3% in volume). Growth on the other hand remained concentrated in select segments: Domestic Super Premium advanced, up 2.1% in dollar sales and 1.9% in volume.

Cider saw gains, with value increasing 1.3% despite a minor volume dip of 0.2%. Non-Alc Beer continued to outperform all other Beer segments (10.9% in value, 10.5% in volume), reinforcing its role as one of Beer’s most consistent growth engines.