Some premium segments may be stabilizing.

That's according to Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America SipSource data which finds Single Malt Scotch, for example, delivered its strongest result since mid-2025 in February, with volume declines narrowing to -2.8%. While not yet a return to growth, this suggests the rate of contraction may be slowing in select high-end categories.

Conversely, Tequila, long a category leader, showed signs of vulnerability. The “Other” Tequila segment experienced a sharp pullback in February, declining -9.5% in volume. Whether this reflects normalization after years of rapid expansion or the beginning of a more sustained cooling remains an open question.

In Wine, the narrative continues to center on pockets of resilience. Sauvignon Blanc has now posted three consecutive months of volume growth, signaling steady consumer demand in a segment that balances familiarity and perceived value. Prosecco also rebounded in February, with volume increasing +4.6% following a softer start to the year, reinforcing the importance of approachable, occasion-driven offerings. 

Taken together, the outlook is not defined by a single turning point but a series of smaller shifts. Calendar timing, easier comparisons, and targeted segment strength are creating a window for improvement—but not uniformly across the market. The industry remains in transition, and the months ahead will be critical in determining whether these tailwinds translate into sustained momentum or simply a temporary lift.

For wine and spirits marketers, March presented one of those rare calendar-driven opportunities. An additional shipping day, combined with Easter falling on April 5th, creates the potential for demand to shift forward into late March.

"This pull-forward effect is particularly relevant in an environment where purchasing has become increasingly concentrated around key occasions. While this doesn’t necessarily signal stronger underlying demand, it can meaningfully impact how depletion trends appear on paper," the SipSource team added. 

At the same time, the industry is moving into a stretch of more forgiving comparisons. From March through May 2025, Spirits posted declines of -5.1% in volume and -4.3% in revenue, while Wine declined -7.7% in volume and -6.3% in revenue. These still-negative benchmarks lower the bar for sequential improvement. Importantly, this dynamic continues into the summer months, as June through August comparisons remain similarly manageable. The implication is straightforward: even modest gains in execution or demand could translate into improved trend lines.

However, performance continues to hinge less on overall category movement and more on behavior at the segment level.