Spirits Improve, But Total Alc Continues Slide; Prepared Cocktails Volume Falls 5%, Sales Hang On

Total alcohol missed year-ago comparisons on both a four-week and one-week basis, NIQ reports.

During the four weeks ending July 11, Total Alcohol missed year-ago comparisons. Dollar sales reached $9.3 billion, down -2.6% vs the like year-earlier period, while case volume totaled 184.2 million, declining -4.7% vs a year ago.

On a weekly basis, dollar sales experienced a large but expected deceleration as purchasing behavior normalized after July 4th celebrations, reaching $2.2 billion, down 17.4% from the week ending July 4. Although latest results show demand slow after Independence Day, the second half of summer and the final week of FIFA World Cup lend opportunity for category strength.

Spirits breaks through as the slowest decliner

Prepared Cocktails topped all categories in performance, with dollar sales rising 0.3% while case volume fell 4.8%. The success of premixed drinks is an ongoing theme as the segments serves both in convenience and alignment to summer drinking occasions.

Wine led category losses, with dollar sales down 3.9% and volume falling 5.6%. This underperformance was an extension of the prior four-week period (week ended July 4), as the category struggles with building demand.

Beer followed behind in declines, with dollar sales down 3.2% and volume falling 4.7%, as the category largely maintains its showing of subtle resilience.

Spirits experienced the slowest declines as trends continue to improve, with dollar sales down 2.4% and volume down 3.9%. The journey toward stability in Spirits throughout summer has been supported by strong seasonal factors, alignment to sunny weather drinking occasions, and FIFA World Cup engagements.

All in all, latest trends continue to illustrate the bifurcated state of the industry as Total Alcohol instability highly varies beneath the surface. Prepared Cocktails are the ongoing beacon of hope, sustaining growth trends. Wine is suffering the most from dips in consumption. Beer is largely stagnant but holding onto its theme of slight stability. Meanwhile Spirits has emerged as the leader of traditional category strength midway through the summer.

Broad-based industry weakness spans key states; Ohio and New Jersey buck the trend

Alcohol performance across regions held primarily stagnant in the latest period, with all key states showing declines in both dollars and volume. Ohio maintained the slowest declines of all among major markets, with dollar sales down 1.4% and volume declining 6.2%. Contrastingly, Illinois retained the largest losses, with dollar sales falling 5.2% and volume dropping 7.3%.

Volume trends were mostly aligned to dollars with some differences. New Jersey was the slowest decliner, with volume down 1.2%, while dollar sales dropped 2.4%. Conversely, Illinois posted the highest losses, down 7.3% in volume and 5.2% in dollars.

Overall, nationwide alcohol trends point to an ongoing fragmented environment. Ohio and New Jersey offer limited stability, outperforming the declines of other regions; however, continuous softness in other states, especially Illinois, overshadow any flashes of strength.

Ongoing pressure in larger channels dragging Alc performance

Retail channel results showed shared weakness with all major channels in decline, Convenience led dollar losses 3.4%, Liquor followed down 2.6%, Food off 2.5%, Mass down 1.6%, and Club 0.0%. Positive trends were shown only in All Other, up 2.9%.

Volume trends closely followed that of dollars, Convenience led losses at -6.4%, followed by Liquor -5.3%, Food -4.0%, Mass -3.6%, while Club (+1.4%) All Others (+5.1%) saw growth. Compared with the prior last four weeks, ending July 4), Mass improved the most after its previous dollar (-3.8%) and volume (-5.9%) declines.

Spirits holds recent summer momentum

In the four weeks ending July 11th, Spirits sustained its recent momentum, with dollar sales slipping 2.4% and volume down 3.4%. Latest performance drivers consist of slowing consumer interest and other trend impacts (94% of decline), which are overshadowing bright spots from product availability and promotions.

From a weekly perspective, Spirits sales returned to business as usual after a notable bump from July 4th. Dollar sales decreased to $508.4 million from $633.3M during the prior week, representing a -19.7% week over week decline.

Although weekly sales slowed, Spirits continues to show stronger trends compared to the weakness seen earlier in the year, as summer-led occasions and the FIFA World Cup have largely benefited the category.

Whiskey outperforms Tequila and Vodka to drive Spirits recovery, led by American Whiskey.

Across top categories, (Vodka, Whiskey, and Tequila), softness was divergent. Vodka once again led underperformance (-4.5% in value, -4.5% in volume). Tequila faced notably moderate declines, with dollar sales down 1.1% and volume up 0.5%. Whiskey broke through its slump, surpassing Tequila to achieve the slowest sales losses, with dollar sales down 1.1% while volume fell 3.6%. Recent Whiskey strength was fostered by American Whiskey (+2.6% in value, -1.3% in volume).

Non Alc Spirits continues to outperform, up 22.8% in dollar sales and up 22.4% in volume. All other segments remain a category detriment, declining 3.4% in dollar sales and 4.2% in volume.