U.S. Wine Market To Slip 3.5% In 2026: Impact Databank

After peaking at some 344 million 9-liter cases in 2020, the U.S. wine market has endured five straight years of volume declines. That trend is continuing in 2026, with the wine category projected to slip 3.5% to below 300 million cases this year, according to the 2026 edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast.

It’s been more than 15 years since the wine category has been under the 300-million-case threshold in the U.S. Boosted by RTDs, spirits overtook wine in volume terms in the U.S. last year for the first time in four decades.

But wine, too, is benefiting from the RTD craze. Wine’s 2026 declines would be even steeper without the contribution of wine-based cocktails, which surged to 18 million cases last year, led by labels like Beatbox and Buzzballz Chillers. In fact, the growth of Beatbox has catapulted brand owner Anheuser-Busch into the sixth position among all wine marketers, with the company’s 2025 wine volume registering seven million cases, according to Impact Databank. Excluding wine-based RTDs, the total wine market decrease would be projected at closer to 5% this year.

However, large brands from a variety of different segments are projected by Impact Databank to post volume gains this year. Josh Cellars from Deutsch Family Wine & Spirits—already the largest-selling line of wines in the U.S. in dollar terms, according to Impact Databank, is projected to increase 2% to 6.5 million cases, excluding its Reserve and Prosecco bottlings.

Sparkling wine leader La Marca Prosecco, from Gallo, also continues to expand, with volume expected to climb 5% to 3.7 million cases. La Marca is the largest-selling imported wine overall in the U.S. by dollar value, according to Impact Databank.

Other leading premium wine brands expected to show volume growth in the U.S. this year include Kendall-Jackson (+0.1%), Menage a Trois (+1.5%), Decoy by Duckhorn (+1%), and Mionetto (+3.5%).