Bev/Al Continues Decline, But Prepared Cocktails Steady

There's good news and bad news this week from NIQ. The good news: Dollar sales were flat in both the April 18 week ended period and the prior, April 11, period.

That's it. Now, here's the bad news: During the four weeks ended April 18, dollar sales were $8.18 billion, down 2.9% from a year-earlier, and case volume declined 3.3% vs. a year-earlier to 157.2 million cases.

As has been true in recent months, only Prepared Cocktails showed growth with dollar sales up 4.4%, although case volume fell 0.2%, NIQ said. In our opinion, that minor dip is a warning to Prepared Cocktail producers not to raise prices.

Spirits held the steepest declines, with dollar sales down -6.0% and volume down -5.2%. Wine followed with slightly slower losses, with dollar sales down -4.9% and volume down -6.1%, as trends fell short of the solid momentum in recent periods. Beer continued to outperform other traditional categories, with dollar sales down -2.0% and volume down -3.4%.

Latest performance highlights a familiar sense of instability across categories, as Spirits losses remain a heavy weight, Wine progress shown in early Spring slows, and even Beer resilience is tested. Prepared Cocktails hold as the ultimate source of growth, as increasing consumer engagement with pre-mixed cocktails partially offsets declining interest in other categories.

Retail channel results reflected Total U.S. weakness. Mass was the sole growth channel, up +0.7%. In contrast, sales declines were seen in all remaining channels: Liquor -5.1%, Club -3.5%, Convenience -2.5%, Food -1.0%, and All Others -2.7%.

Volume trends closely followed these results, as many channels struggled. Club was most stable -0.3%, followed by Mass -0.9%, Food -1.5%, Liquor -4.5%, Convenience -4.8%, while All Others outperformed, up +0.9%.

Liquor and Convenience drove industry results with accelerated losses versus their previous dollar (Liquor, -2.9%, Convenience, -1.1% ) and volume (Liquor-2.8% Convenience, -3.5% ) declines.

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